旺彩四肖中特图110期

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劉尚希:要有基于風險決策的財政政策新思維

作者:本報記者 任焱 來源:中國財經報 發布時間:2019-08-16

  JINRI,ZAIZHONGGUOCAIZHENGKEXUEYANJIUYUANJUXINGDE《CAIZHENGLANPISHU:ZHONGGUOCAIZHENGZHENGCEBAOGAO(2019)》FABUHUIJI“SHANGBANNIANHONGGUANXINGSHIYUCAIZHENGZHENGCE”YANTAOHUISHANG,ZHONGGUOCAIZHENGKEXUEYANJIUYUANYUANCHANGLIUSHANGXIBIAOSHI,ZAIDANGQIANCHONGCHIZHUBUQUEDINGXINGDEBEIJINGXIA,HONGGUANDIAOKONGDELUOJIXUYAOBEIZHONGXINSIKAO,CAIZHENGZHENGCEYEBUYINGZAIBEIDANYIDIKANDAI。YINGDANGCONGFENGXIANGUANLIDEJIAODU,TONGSHIFANGZAIJINGJIHESHEHUILINGYUZHONGSIKAOCAIZHENGZHENGCEDELUOJI。

  對傳統宏觀調控政策的反省  

  YIZHIYILAI,CAIZHENGZHENGCEDOUSHIBEIDANGZUOJINGJIZHENGCELAIKANDAIDE,ZAILIUSHANGXIKANLAI,SHISHISHANG,CAIZHENGZHENGCESHENJIANERZHI:YONGYUHONGGUANDIAOKONGSHI,CAIZHENGZHENGCEXIANRANSHIJINGJIZHENGCE,DANZAISHEHUILINGYU,CAIZHENGZHENGCEFAHUIDESHICUJINSHEHUIGONGPINGZHENGYIDEZUOYONG,JIUSHISHEHUIZHENGCE。ZHECONGCAIZHENGZHICHUDEGOUCHENGZHONGYEKEKUIJIANYIER:BUJINYOUJINGJIXINGDEZHICHU,HUANYOUSHEHUIXINGDEZHICHU,QIEJINNIANLAIYUELAIYUEDUO,ZENGCHANGSUDUYUANYUANKUAIYUJINGJIXINGZHICHUDEZENGCHANGSUDU。LIUSHANGXIRENWEI,ZHESHUOMINGDANGGUOJIAJINRUDAODANGQIANDEFAZHANJIEDUAN,CAIZHENGDEZUOYONGYUJIATUXIAN,YINERWOMENGENGXUYAOZAILIJIECAIZHENGZHENGCESHICONGDUOFANGKAOLV。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  SHISHISHANG,FANGZAIDANGQIANDEBEIJINGXIA,CONGHONGGUANDIAOKONGDEJIAODUSIKAOCAIZHENGZHENGCEYEXUYAOJINYIBUFANSI。

  GUOQUZAISHISHICAIZHENGZHENGCEYINGYONGDESHIYIZHONGQUEDINGXINGDELUOJI,JICAIQUDECUOSHIYIDINGHUICHANSHENGXIAOGUO,ZHUYAOZAIKAIENSIDEXUQIUGUANLIKUANGJIAZHONGFENXIHEYANJIUCAIZHENGZHENGCE。DANGSHI,YIBANRENWEICAIZHENGZHENGCESHIGUANLIXUQIUZUIZHONGYAODESHOUDUANZHIYI,YEJIUSHIJIANGCAIZHENGZHENGCEFANGZAILE“SANJIAMACHE”LIKAN。CISHI,CAIZHENGZHENGCEDEJUEZESHISHIHOUDEJUEZE——SHIWANGWANGDENGDAOWENTIFEICHANGYANZHONGSHICAICAIQUXIANGYINGDEZHENGCECUOSHI,SHIQUJUEYUDUIDANGQIANJINGJIXINGSHIDEPANDUANSUOJINXINGDEXUANZE,RU,KUODATOUZI、CIJIXIAOFEIDENG。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  2008NIANSHOUQUANQIUJINRONGWEIJIDECHONGJI,WOGUOCAIQUDESIWANYICIJICUOSHIJIUSHOUDAOLEXIAOGUO。DANZAIRUJINZHEGEFAZHANJIEDUAN,ZAIMIANDUITONGYANGDEWENTISHI,WOGUORUOCAIQUTONGYANGDECUOSHISHIFOUHUANHUIYOUXIAOGUONI?QUEDINGXINGSHIFOUYIRANCUNZAI?LIUSHANGXISHUO,ZHEZHONGJIYUQUEDINGXINGSIWEIDEFENXIKUANGJIAYIJINGWUFAMANZUXIANSHIHONGGUANZHENGCEXUYAO。

  ZAIDANGXIAQUANQIUHUA、SHEHUIZHUANXING、JINGJIZHUANXINGDEBEIJINGXIA,NEIWAIYINSUJIAOZHIDIEJIAXINGCHENGDEYIXILIEJIEGOUXINGWENTIYIJINGHENNANYONGCHUANTONGDELILUNJINXINGJIESHILE,GUOQUKANDAODEQUEDINGXINGLUOJIYIJINGBUCUNZAI。XIANZAI,WOMENKANDAODEGENGDUODESHIBUQUEDINGXING。

  ZAIQIANBUJIUJUBANDEG20DABANFENGHUIDEZHUTIJIWEIQUANQIUMIANLINDEJUDABUQUEDINGXING。XIANRAN,ZUOWEISHIJIEDIERDAJINGJITI,ZAIQIERUQUANQIUHUADEGUOCHENGZHONG,WOGUODEFAZHANYEMIANLINZHUZHUDUOBUQUEDINGXING。ZAIMIANLINJUDABUQUEDINGXINGDEXINSHIJIEGUANXIA,RUGUOJIXUYONGCHUANTONGDEQUEDINGXINGSIWEI,ZHENGCECUOSHIJIUBUYIDINGHUIYOUXIAOGUO。SHISHISHANG,DANGQIANWOMENYIJINGGANJUEDAOLEISIDEZHENGCEXIAOGUODEBIANJIXIAOYINGZHENGKUAISUDIJIAN。YINCI,LIUSHANGXIRENWEI,YINGDANGGENJUXINXINGSHIQUCHUANGXINHONGGUANDIAOKONG。YAOCHUANGXINHONGGUANDIAOKONGSHOUXIANYINGDANGBAHONGGUANDIAOKONGNARUDAOGONGGONGFENGXIANGUANLIZHONGLAI,BUNENGJINJINJIUHONGGUANDIAOKONGQUKANHONGGUANDIAOKONG。GONGGONGFENGXIANDEGUANLIYINGSHIZAIGENGGAODECENGMIAN,ZHIYOUNARUDAOGONGGONGFENGXIANDEGUANLIKUANGJIAZHONG,HONGGUANDIAOKONGCAIBUHUIZHIZAOFENGXIAN。

  穩預期為何如此重要?  

旺彩四肖中特图110期  LIUSHANGXIJIESHAO,CONGXINGWEIJINGJIXUEDEJIAODUKAN,JINGJIYUNXINGQINGKUANGZHUYAOQUJUEYUXINGWEIZHUTIDEYUQIQINGKUANG,XINGWEIZHUTIDEYUQIQUWEN,JINGJIJIUHUIQUWEN。CONGZHEYIDIANKAN,WENYUQIJIUCHENGWEILEQITAFANGMIANSHIXIAN“WEN”DEQIANTITIAOJIANHEJICHU。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  CONGJINGJIJIAODUKAN,SHICHANGZHUTIDEYUQISHIZUIZHONGYAODE。SHICHANGZHUTIJIQIYE、GEREN、XIAOFEIZHE、TOUZIZHE、JINGYINGZHEDENGDENG。ZHEXIEZHUTIDEYUQIJUEDINGLETAMENDEXINGWEI——SHIFOUJINXINGTOUZI,SHIFOUJINXINGXIAOFEI。DANGQIAN,TOUZIJIAOWEIDIMI,XIAOFEILILIANGYEBUZU。NEIME,ZAIDANGXIABUQUEDINGDEHUANJINGXIARUHEWENDINGYUQI?ZENYANGGEIDAJIACHIKE“DINGXINWAN”?BINGQIERUHERANGZHEKE“DINGXINWAN”ZHILIANGGENGHAO、GENGYOUXIAO?

  XIANDAISHEHUIDEBUQUEDINGXING,DAIBIAOZHUFENGXIANWUCHUBUZAI,WUSHIBUYOUDAOZHINANYIWENDINGYUQI,ZHONGYANGTICHU“LIUWEN”,GUANJIANSHIWENYUQI,SHIJISHANGJIUSHIYAOJIANSHAOBUQUEDINGXING。WENYUQISHIDANGXIADETOUDENGDASHI,SHIHONGGUANZHENGCEMIANLINDESHOUYAORENWU。TASHUO,WENYUQIBUJINYAOKAOJINGJISHOUDUAN,HUANYAOCONGSHEHUICENGMIANHEGUOJICENGMIANCHUFA。WENYUQIJIKEYIYONGZHENGCECUOSHI,TONGSHIYEYINGDANGCAIQUGAIGEDESHOUDUAN。JIYAOYOUZHENGCE,JIEJUEDUANQIDEYIXIEWENTI,TONGSHIYEYAOTONGGUOGAIGEWANSHANZHIDU,CHUANGXINTIZHIJIZHIQUJIEJUEYIXIECHANGYUANXINGDEWENTI。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  YAOWENYUQI,HUANXUJIANGDIJINGJIDEBUQUEDINGXING。LIUSHANGXIJIESHAO,JINGJIBUQUEDINGXINGYOULIANGGECENGMIANDEYUANYIN,YIFANGMIAN,SHICHANGJIZHIBENSHENZISHENYOUBUQUEDINGXING,LINGYIFANGMIANDEBUQUEDINGXINGLAIZIYUZHENGCEDAOZHIDEBUQUEDINGXING。LINGWAIHUANYOUZHONGZHONGBUQUEDINGXINGSHIHECHENGDE,BUYIDINGSHIMOUGEZHUTIZHIZAOCHULAIDE。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  QIZHONG,ZHENGCEDAOZHIDEBUQUEDINGXINGFANGMIAN,TASHUO,CONGGEBUMENZHENGCEDEZHIDING,ZHENGCEMUBIAOYIJICUOSHILAIKAN,CHUFADIANDOUMEIYOUWENTI,DANWANGWANGCONGZHENGTILAIKANJIUHUICHANSHENGCHONGTU。XIANZAICHUTAIZHENGCEDEPINLVBIJIAOGAO,DANGXINZHENGCECHUXIAN,SHICHANGZHUTIWANGWANGHUIYONGQIFUGAIYUANYOUZHENGCE。RUOYUANYOUZHENGCEHUANWEISHIXIAO,QIANHOUZHENGCEDOUYAOZHIXING,QIECUNZAIBUXIEDIAODEDIFANGSHI,JIUHUIRANGSHICHANGZHUTIWUSUOSHICONG,WEIGUANZHUTIDEHEGUICHENGBEN、HEGUIFENGXIANJIUHUIDADATISHENG。ZHEZHONGHECHENGDEBUQUEDINGXINGSHIZUINANJIEJUEDE。NEIME,ZENMEJIAQIANGBUMENJIANZHENGCEDEXIEDIAOXINGYIJIQIANHOUZHENGCEDEXIEDIAOXING?LIUSHANGXIRENWEI,ZHEYILEIDEBUQUEDINGXINGWENTIZHINENGTONGGUOZHENGFUZISHENJIAYIJIEJUE。TASHUO,YIJIUSHIYAOKAODIAOZHENGSIWEIFANGSHI。

  財政政策的新思維  

  LIUSHANGXITICHU,CAIZHENGZHENGCEDEXINSIWEIJIUSHIYAOCONGGUOQUDEQUEDINGXINGSIWEIBIANCHENGBUQUEDINGXINGSIWEI,ZHAODAOQUEDINGXING,SHIXIANWOMENDEMUBIAOHERENWU。YAOCONGGONGGONGFENGXIANGUANLIZHONGKANCAIZHENGZHENGCE,CISHIDECAIZHENGZHENGCEJIYAODUICHONGJINGJILINGYUDEFENGXIAN,YEYAODUICHONGSHEHUILINGYUDEFENGXIAN。

  TAJIESHAO,JIYUFENGXIANJUECESHIJIAODECAIZHENGZHENGCEXINSIWEI,TIXIANWEISANGEFANGMIAN:YISHISHULIBUQUEDINGXINGSIWEIDECAIZHENGZHENGCELINIAN。YAOCONGCHUANTONGDEQUEDINGXINGZHENGCEFENXIKUANGJIAZHONGTIAOCHULAI,ZAIGONGGONGFENGXIANYUCAIZHENGFENGXIANDEQUANHENGZHIZHONGZHIDING、DIAOZHENGHEWANSHANCAIZHENGZHENGCE,BABUQUEDINGXINGNARUZHENGCEFENXIKUANGJIAZHIZHONG,JIJICAIZHENGZHENGCECAIHUIGENGJIAJIJIYOUXIAO。ERSHICAIZHENGZHENGCEYAOZHURUHONGGUANQUEDINGXINGLAIWENDINGSHICHANGYUQI,WENDINGYUQIJIUNENGWENZHUDAJU,JINERSHIWOMENMIANLINDEGONGGONGFENGXIANZUIXIAOHUA,RANGBUQUEDINGXINGSHOULIANDAOSHICHANGZHINEI。SANSHIJIYUGONGGONGFENGXIANGUANLILAICHUANGXINCAIZHENGZHENGCE。

  CONGFENGXIANDEJIAODULAISHUO,ZUIZHONGHENGLIANGCAIZHENGZHENGCEDEBIAOZHUNZHIYISHIQISHIFOUNENGBANGZHUWEIGUANFENGXIANCHUQING,SHIXIANGONGGONGFENGXIANDESHOULIAN。JUTITIXIANWEINENGFOUSHIXIANSANGEMUBIAO:YISHITONGGUOWENDINGWEIGUANZHUTIYUQILAISHIXIANSHEHUIZONGGONGXUDELIANGXINGXUNHUAN。ERSHITONGGUOCUJINJIUYEHERENLIZIBENJILEI,LAISHIXIANGONGGONGFUWUGONGXULIANGXINGXUNHUAN。SANSHITONGGUOWEICHILIUDONGXINGHECHANGQIRONGZILAISHIXIANJINRONGGONGXULIANGXINGXUNHUAN。CIWAI,TATICHULEJIYUGONGGONGFENGXIANDEZHIDUBIANQIANGUAN,TARENWEIRUGUOZHIDUBIANQIANZHIHOU,ZHENGCEBUWANSHAN,NEIME,BUQUEDINGXINGKUODA,SHICHANGZHONGFENGXIANBUNENGCHUQING,JIUHUIZHUANHUAWEIGONGGONGFENGXIAN,DAOZHIWEIGUANZHUTICHENGBENPUBIANSHANGSHENG。FANGFANHUAJIEZHONGDAFENGXIANJIUSHIZHENDUIGONGGONGFENGXIAN,YOUYUFENGXIANSHIWUJIE、WUXINGDE,YINCIWOMENDUIFENGXIANXINGTAIYAOYOUCHUANTOUXINGDERENSHI,YAOYIGAIGELAITUIDONGZHIDUYOUHUA,GENGHAODIHUAJIEGONGGONGFENGXIAN。

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