旺彩四肖中特图110期

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周天勇:支撐中國經濟增長的關鍵是這8億人口

來源:新浪財經 發布時間:2019-07-23

  新浪財經訊 “2019年第二季度宏觀經濟形勢分析會暨陸家嘴旺彩四肖中特图110期科創沙龍”于7月21日在上海舉行。東北財經大學中國戰略與政策研究中心主任、中央黨校(國家行政學院)國際戰略研究院原副院長周天勇出席并演講。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  ZHOUTIANYONGQIANGDIAO,ZHICHENGZHONGGUOJINGJIZENGCHANGDEGUANJIANJIUZAIYU5.6YINONGCUNCHANGZHURENKOUHE2.4YIZUOYOUDECHENGZHENFEIHUJIRENKOU,“YAOTIGAOTAMENDESHOURU,ZENGJIATAMENDEXIAOFEINENGLI,EZHISHENGCHANGUOSHENGYIJIJINGJISHUAITUI”。“BUTIGAOZHEBUFENJUMINDESHOURU,BUDALIDUJINXINGTIGAOJUMINSHOURUDEYOUGUANGAIGE,YIQIEDUANQICUOSHIHEZHENGCEDOUSHIWUYONGGONG,DOUNIUZHUANBULEJINGJIJIXUXIAXINGDEQUSHI”。

  以下為演講實錄: 

旺彩四肖中特图110期  ZHOUTIANYONG:HAIGUANCHUKOUSHUJU,1-2YUEFENZENGCHANGXIADEHENLIHAI,HOULAIDAO5YUEFENYIHOUSHANGZHANG。6YUEFENDECHUKOUSHIZENGCHANGLE6.1%。CHUKOULVEHAOYUQI。ZHENGGEJINGJIZENGCHANG,CONG2014NIANDESUDUXIALAI,ERJIDUZUIDIDAO6.2%,SHIZAIYITIAOXIAJIANGDEQUXIANSHANG。

  2006NIAN,CHUKOUZHANGDPDEBILIZUIGAODESHIHOUKUAIDAO36%,HOULAIXIAJIANG,QUNIANDAGAIJIANGDAO18%。XIANZAIFADAGUOJIA,TEBIESHIMEIGUOBUYUANYIYAOZHONGGUONEIMEDUODESHANGPIN,YIXIEHOUFADEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAYOUZAIFADAGUOJIASHICHANGSHANGJIZHANZHONGGUODECHUKOU,ZHONGGUOXIANZAIYUDAOLIANGFANGMIANDEJIYA。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  ZENMEBAN?BIXUXUYAOGUONEIDEXIAOFEIXUQIUZHICHENGQILAI。DANSHI,XIAOFEIHESHOURUSHIYOUGUANXIDE,TEBIESHIJUMINDEXIAOFEI。RUGUOMEIYOUSHOURU,HUOZHESHOURUZENGCHANGBULIXIANG,YOUZHIFUNENGLIDEXIAOFEIXUQIUJIUHUIBUZU。SUOYI,WOMENTANXIAOFEIYIDINGYAOTANYOUZHIFUNENGLIDEXIAOFEIXUQIU。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  SHOURUFANGMIAN,SHANGBANNIANQUANGUOJUMINRENJUNKEZHIPEISHOURUWEI15294YUAN,CHENGZHENJUMINWEI21342YUAN,NONGCUNJUMINWEI7778YUAN,CHENGZHENJUMINDERENJUNXIAOFEIZHICHUWEI13565YUAN。2017NIANCHENGZHENJUMINSHOURUXIAOFEILVDAGAI67%,XIANZAIBIANCHENG63.56%LE。NONGCUNJUMINDEXIAOFEI6310YUAN,SHOURUXIAOFEILVWEI82%。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  CONGJUMINSHOURUZHANGDPBILILAIKAN,SHANGBANNIANGDPZONGLIANG45WANYI,JUMINZONGSHOURUZHANGDPBILIWEI47.48%,YIBANWOMENZHEYANGDEFAZHANSHUIPINGDEGUOJIA,JUMINSHOURUYAOZHANDAOGDPDE60%-65%,PIANLIBIAOZHUNZHI12-17GEBAIFENDIAN。SHUOMINGGDPYAOMEJIUSHITIELU,YAOMEJIUSHIGONGLU,YAOMEJIUSHIJIXIESHEBEI,DANSHIJUMINXIAOFEIBIJIAOSHAO。

  CONGGDPFENPEIJIAODUKAN,ZHONGJUMINFENDEBIJIAOSHAO。JUMINXIAOFEIZHAN32.07%,GUOJISHANGYIBAN50-55%,PIANLI18-23%GEBAIFENDIAN。HANGUOJIUSUANZIBENJILEIBIJIAOGAODEGUOJIA,DANHUANSHIBIWOMENGAO10DUOGEDIAN。GONGYEPINSHISHADONGXI,XIANZAIJIUSHIJIEDAODELUDENG、MALUZHELEIDEDONGXI。

  SHANGBANNIANWOMENGONGYECHANNENGLIYONGLV76.15%,GUOSHENGGUIMODAGAI56370WANYUAN。

  TEBIEYOUYISIDESHI,SHANGBANNIANCHENGZHENJUMINCAICHANXINGSHOURUSHI2209YUAN,DANSHINONGCUNJUMINDECAICHANXINGSHOURUSHI217YUAN,CHENGZHENJUMINSHINONGCUNJUMINDE10BEIDUO,QIANLIANGNIANDAGAISHI12BEI,ZHELIANGNIANSHAOWEIYOUDIANSUOXIAO。CHENGZHENJUMINDESHANGBANNIANSHOURUXIAOFEILVSHI63%,2017NIANSHI67%,SHUOMINGCHENGZHENJUMINDESHOURUZAITIGAO。NONGCUNJUMINDESHOURUXIAOFEI2017NIANSHI82%,2018NIANBIANCHENG83%LE,JINNIANYOUJIANGDIDAOLE81.13%,SHUOMING2019NIANNONGMINSHOURUZENGCHANG。

  ZAIFENXIYIXIASANFENFADECHENGXIANGJUMINSHOURU,TONGJIJUZHIKANDAOCHENGZHENCHANGZHURENKOURENJUNKEZHIPEISHOURUHENONGCUNCHANGZHURENKOURENJUNKEZHIPEISHOURU。DANSHISHIJISHANGYOUYIBUFENSHIZHONGJIANCENG,DAGAI2.4YIRENZUOYOUDEFEIHUJICHENGZHENRENKOU。

  CHENGZHENHUJIRENKOUANZHAOWOMENXIANZAIDEHUJILVSUANDEHUASHI6.02YI,TAMENDERENJUNKEZHIPEISHOURUSHANGBANNIANSHI21342YUAN,CHENGZHENJUMINDEZONGSHOURUWEI141042WANYUAN。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  CHENGZHENFEIHUJIJUMIN2.38YIREN,CHENGSHANGTAMENDEKEZHIPEISHOURU12402YUAN,TAMENZONGDESHOURU29518WANYUAN。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  NONGCUNCHANGZHUJUMIN5.6YIREN,CHENGSHANGTAMENDERENJUNKEZHIPEISHOURU7778YUAN,TAMENDEZONGSHOURUZHIYOU43556WANYI。

  DAGAI43%DEHUJIJUMINSHANGBANNIANSHOURULE14WANYI,DANSHIFEIHUJIJUMIN2.38YIJIASHANG5.6,JIANGJIN8YI,ZHENGGEZONGSHOURUCAI7.3WANYIYUANZUOYOU。

  CHENGZHENHUJIJUMIN,YUCHENGZHENFEIHUJIJUMINHENONGCUNCHANGZHUJUMINDESHOURUCHAJU,YEKECONGSANFENFADEJUMINXIAOFEIGUJI,CHENGZHENHUJIJUMINSHOURUCHENGSHANGTAMENDEXIAOFEILV,SHANGBANNIANZHICHULE88621WANYUAN;ER2.38YICHENGZHENFEIHUJIJUMINJIA5.6YINONGCUNCHANGZHUJUMINDESHOURUCHENGYIXIAOFEILV,8YIRENKOUXIAOFEICAIZHICHULE56000WANYUAN。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  2018NIANCONGSHOURUDE5DENGFENRENQUNKAN,,GAOSHOURU20%DESHOURUYOU19WANYI。20%DEZHONGGAOSHOURURENQUNSHOURUWEI10WANYIYUAN,ZHONGDENGSHOURU20%RENKOUZEBUDAO6WANYIYUAN,ER40%DEZHONGDISHOURUHEDISHOURURENQUN,ZONGGONG5.6YIRENKOU,QIZONGSHOURUBUDAO5.8WANYIYUAN。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  JIUJINGZENMEBAN?XIANZAITOUZIDEXIAOFEIZHUANHUALVCONG20SHIJI80NIANDAIDE40%ZUOYOU,XIAJIANGDAOXIANZAIDE20%ZUOYOU。SHANGBANNIANGONGYELINGYUYINGUOSHENGERTOUZIKONGJIANYOUXIAN,ZHIZENGCHANGLE2.9%。

  DIFANGZHENGFUZHAIFENGXIAN,DIFANGJIEZHAIGUIFANHUAHOU,DIFANGTOUZINENGLIXIAJIANG;FANGDICHANTOUZIZOUSHIYOUYOUBUQUEDINGXING,MINYINGTOUZIQUEFA,JINGWAIDUIZHONGGUOTOUZIBUQUEDING,CHUKOUYEYOUTADENANDIANHEBUQUEDINGXING,SHENGXIAJIUSHIRENKOU。ERRENKOUSHAOZIHUA、JINGJIZHULIRENKOUSHOUSUOHELAOLINGHUA,SHOUCHANGQIDUIXIAOFEIZENGCHANGDEYALI。TAKENENGDAOZHIGUOSHENGCHANGTAIHUA,SHIJINGJIZENGCHANGCHANGQIXIAXING。

  ZHICHENGWOMENZENGCHANGDEJIHUIJIUZAITIGAO8YIRENKOUDESHOURUSHUIPINGSHANG(5.6YINONGCUNCHANGZHURENKOUHE2.4YIZUOYOUDECHENGZHENFEIHUJIRENKOU),YAOTIGAOTAMENDESHOURU,ZENGJIATAMENDEXIAOFEINENGLI,EZHISHENGCHANGUOSHENGYIJIJINGJISHUAITUI。BUTIGAOZHEBUFENJUMINDESHOURU,BUDALIDUJINXINGTIGAOJUMINSHOURUDEYOUGUANGAIGE,YIQIEDUANQICUOSHIHEZHENGCEDOUSHIWUYONGGONG,DOUNIUZHUANBULEJINGJIJIXUXIAXINGDEQUSHI。

  GUANJIANJIUSHICHUKOUBULENEIMEDUOLE,HOUFADEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAYOUZAIZHENGDUOGUOJISHANGDECHUKOUSHICHANG,ZIJIDEXIAOFEIXUQIUZAIDINGBUSHANGBUQUDEHUA,JINGJIYEJIUWUFAZHICHENGZHULE。GUANJIANJIUSHIZHE8YIRENDESHOURUNENGBUNENGTIGAO。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  NEIME,ZENMETIGAOTAMENDESHOURUSHUIPING?TIGAONONGCUNJUMINHECHENGZHENFEIHUJIJUMINDESHOURUHEKUODAXIAOFEIDEGUANJIANSHINONGCUNTUDIZHIDUGAIGEHECHENGXIANGRENKOUYAOSUDENGHUDONGRONGHE。GAIGEKAIFANGYILAI,CHENGZHENJIANCHENGQUCONGNONGCUNJITIZHONGZHUANYILE8500MUTUDI,DIFANGZHENGFU1998NIANTUDIYOUCHANGSHIYONGHEZHAOPAIGUAYILAI,CHURANGJINSHOURUDAOQUNIANWEIZHILEIJISHOULE43WANYIYUAN,GEILENONGMINDUOSHAO?WOGUJI3WANYIYUANDOUMEIYOU。YINWEINONGCUNDEGENGDIJIWANKUAIQIANNALAI,ERQUNIANTUDIPAIMAIDEPINGJUNJIAGEDAGAI270WANYIMU。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  CHENGZHENZHUZHAISHANGPINHUAHESHICHANGHUAGAIGEHOU,XUDUOCHENGZHENJUMINCHENGDUBUTONGDIJILEILEBUDONGCHANCAIFU,ERNONGMINYOUZIJIDEGENGDILINDIZHUZHAIDIBUNENGJIAOYI、BUNENGZIBENHUATOURUJINGYING,JIHUMEIYOUJIAZHIYIYISHANGDECAIFU。

  ZHENGFUYEMEIXIANGNONGCUNJUMINTIGONGJICHUSHESHI,WODAONONGCUNQUDIAOYAN,NONGMINSHUOWOMEIFAJIANCESUO,WEISHENMEBUJIAN?MEIYOUYINJINGHEPAIWUGUANDAO,WOMENJIANGECESUO,DIFANGZHENGFUYIWEIJIANCHAILE。

旺彩四肖中特图110期  WORENWEI,YIJINGDAOLEJIANGTUDISHOURULIUGEINONGMINYIBUFENDESHIHOULE,JIANSHETONGYIHEPINGDENGDECHENGXIANGJINGZHENGXINGDETUDISHICHANG。YAOGEINONGMINCAICHANXINGSHOURU,YOUHENGCHANYOUHENGXIN,CHENGXIANGJIANYIXILIEZIBEN、LAODONGLIDENGYAOSUYAOSHUANGXIANGLIUDONG,ZHEDOUSHIZHONGYANGWENJIANHEZHONGYANGLINGDAOJIANGDE。

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旺彩四肖中特图110期  YINGDANGFAZHANYIHUJIAN、SHUANGPIN、LIANPAI、DUOCENGDENGXINXINGNONGCUNHECHENGJIAOSHEQU。ZHENGFUDINGZHUNEIDIANJIANSHEYONGDI,CHAILENONGMINDEYUANZI,RANGNONGMINSHANGGAOLOU。XIANZAIZHONGGUOYIJINGCHENGLEGAOCENGZHUZHAIFENGKUANGJIANSHEDEGUOJIA。DAOHANGUO、RIBEN,RENJIADOUSHITINGYUAN,XUDUOBIESHU,WOMENZHEERHAOXIANGGENBIESHUYOUSHENCHOUDAHENYIYANG,YIKANDAOBIESHUJIUHAIPA,JIUYAOCHAI。RENJIANONGMINFUYUQILAIJIUSHINONGJIAYUAN,JIUSHIBIESHU,WOMENBURANGJIANBIESHU,BADIYUANCHAILE,TENGCHUTUDIJIANSHEYONGDIZHIBIAO,NAGUOLAIGEIFANGDICHANSHANG,TUDIMAIDETAIGUI,ZUIHOUKAIFASHANGSHUOTAIGUILE,DIFANGZHENGFUBUDUANDIXIANGGAODIAOGUI,YUANLAI20CENG,GAI22CENG,BUDUANSHANGSHENG,ZUIHOUQUANGUOQUANSHIJISHICENGDEGAOCENGZHUZHAILE。ZHELIMEIYOUWEISHANGYE,WEIJIUYE,WEICHUANGYE,WEISHEQU,ZUIHOUCHENGWEIPUBIANDEGAOCENGPINMINKU。

  CHENGSHIHUJIQUANMIANFANGKAI,TIGONGGONGPINGDEJIAOYUDENGGONGGONGFUWU,TIGONGLIANZUFANG。CHENGSHIZIJINKEYIXIAXIANG,CHENGSHIRENKEYIDAONONGCUNMAIZHAIJIDI。NONGCUNRENKOUYOUDEDAOSHENZHENGONGZUOSHINIAN、ERSHINIAN,ZIJIFANGZIDOUTALEBUNENGMAI。ZHEBUSHISHICHANGJINGJI。

  TUIJINTUDIZHIDUGAIGE、HUJIZHIDUGAIGE,GONGGONGFUWU,RANGNONGMINFUYUQILAI,RANGTAMENYOUSHOURU。ZONGDEJIUSHIYAOZENGJIA8YIRENKOUDESHOURUZENGQIANGTAMENYOUZHIFUNENGLIDEXIAOFEIXUQIU,GOUMAIGONGYEPIN,HUANJIESHENZHIXIAOCHUSHENGCHANGUOSHENG。YINGDANGGULICHENGXIANGJIUYE、CHUANGYE,ZHEERHUANYOUYIGECIJIAO“ZHIYE”,CHENGLIRENJIUNENG“ZHIYE”,NONGCUNNEIMEDAGEYUANLUOZIJIBURANG“ZHIYE”?XIANZAIXUYAOZAIJITISUOYOUBUBIANDEQIANTIXIA,RANGNONGMINYOUTUDISHIYONGCAICHANQUAN,NENGGOUJIAOYI、CHUZU、RUGU、DIYA、JICHENGHEJIANSHE,TUDICONGSHENGHUOHESHENGCHANZILIAOBIANCHENGYOUJIAZHIDEZICHAN,WOMENYINGDANGSHANGTAMENCONGWUCHANZHE,XIANZAIYAOBIANCHENGYOUTUDIZICHANDEYOUCHANZHE。SHEHUIZHUYISHICHANGJINGJIZHONG,NONGMINSHIWUCHANZHE,ZHESHIBUDUIDE。

  TUIJINTUDIGAIGE,FANGKAIGAOHUO,RANGZHONGDISHOURUZHEFUYUQILAI,GOUMAIGONGYEPIN,BAOCHIYIDINGJINGJIZENGCHANGSUDU,WOMENYIDINGKUAYUEZHONGDENGSHOURUJIEDUAN,JINRUGAOSHOURUGUOJIAXINGLIE。

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